Correspondent's Notebook

Reflections on a contender

4 September 2009

Australian politics is a robust affair and it’s often personal; the private lives of politicians attract almost as much attention as their political achievements.

Radio Australia’s Michael Cavanagh considers the implications of that for the leader of Australia’s main opposition party, Malcolm Turnbull.

Mention the name Malcolm Turnbull to any Australian and you will hear a view about the man – he polarises opinion.

The Rhodes scholar-lawyer-journalist-merchant banker-businessman has only been in federal parliament since 2004.

But when you are the most wealthy politician in the parliament, who has enjoyed a high profile and success long before putting himself at the mercy of the voters, there is one thing that Australians will agree on.

That is, Malcolm Turnbull is determined to one day gain the keys to the Lodge, the official residence for Australia’s prime ministers.

The 55-year-old entered parliament as a member of the conservative coalition then in power.

Mr Turnbull was soon a minister under the then prime minister John Howard, and while the treasurer, Peter Costello, was seen as heir-apparent,  Mr Turnbull was viewed as a definite rival.

But the Liberal Party and its junior coalition partner, the Nationals, in 2007 lost power – John Howard went after 13 years as  prime minister.

Labor, led by Kevin Rudd, was swept into office  and Peter Costello, much to the disgust of some colleagues, declined the leadership of the opposition, instead to pursue a career outside politics.

Initially, another former Howard minister – Dr Brendan Nelson – was elected as leader by colleagues. Malcolm Turnbull threw his hat into the ring but he wasn’t wanted.

However, given the campaign that he mounted several years earlier to unseat a party colleague and therefore gain pre-selection for the wealthiest electorate in Australia, it wasn’t surprising that Brendan Nelson was soon in trouble.

Poor opinion polls didn’t help the former doctor – and soon the plotting was under way.

For Malcolm Turnbull watchers it was inevitable that Dr Nelson would soon succumb, and so it was that just under 12 months ago, Mr Turnbull became leader after a party-room vote.

However, it hasn’t gone to script.

Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party are enjoying massive support in public opinion polls –  despite the global financial crisis, Australia’s economy continues to enjoy growth – while the opposition continues to bicker.

This is not helped by the same opinion polls that show Mr Turnbull lagging well behind Kevin Rudd when it comes to preferred prime minister.

Dogging him at the time was an episode earlier this year when Mr Turnbull accused Mr Rudd of misleading parliament – his attack was largely based upon a public servant who, in evidence to a parliamentary hearing, referred to an email that has since turned out to be a fake.

Malcolm Turnbull was humiliated over the affair – and there were mutterings over his lack of judgement – although publicly his party backed him.

This was partly due to the fact that there is now no clear alternative and those aspiring to lead the opposition probably feel it is inevitable that they will fail to win office at the next election due by the end of next year.

Therefore, the thinking possibly goes,  it is better to wait until after that and then make a run for leadership, as Mr Turnbull would certainly be dumped.

While his party colleagues may think they are destined for more time in opposition, the one thing that you have to concede to Malcolm Turnbull is that publicly he is not giving up.

Dr Nelson, who is about to leave politics, recently described his rival as a narcissist:  mythology has it that Narcissus fell in love with his own reflection.

Malcolm Turnbull does not lack self-belief – and there is no doubt that some of his colleagues like Brendan Nelson think  he is very comfortable sitting beside a pool looking at his own image.

Soon he could be reflecting on what may have been.