Radio Australia Today Editorial
Archive for October, 2008
Financial meltdown: James Bond, Beyonce and Barack Obama Led Recovery
31 October 2008
I know it’s a bit early to say that the economic recovery is underway yet. The markets had a rocket yesterday, with Tokyo going up ten percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumping thirteen percent. Australia’s ASX 200 is back over 4000. The financial gods smiled overnight and stockbrokers and investors are smiling with them.
Why all this optimism?
I’m going to take a punt here and suggest that we should look at what’s happening in the world at the moment. We’re just five days away from the US people voting in a new administration, effectively wiping out a presidency that took its country into two wars and a recession. Barack Obama is the front-runner, and his message is that things are going to change when he gets behind the desk that Bill Clinton used in all manner of ways. John McCain has also been promising change, so much so that George W. Bush has not featured at all in his campaigning. So it’s fair to say that after Tuesday the direction of the US have the first minutes of change, even of the president is not sworn in until January 20.
This makes this the pre-election dreamy time, which is the grown-up versiion to what we felt as kids on the night before Christmas. There’s anticipation, and a kind of hush. John McCain has promised he’ll win, and his crowds loved it. If he does pull it off, expect Republican euphoria on a scale not seen since Reagan. Those cheerleader rallies for the candidates, they are something to behold.
Just to boost the mood, the new Bond film is about to debut, coinciding with former James Bond Roger Moore touring the world touting his new autobiography, which looks a ripper (we just received ours this morning – we’ll have the Spy Who Loved Me in the studio in a few weeks). Like the superbowl, Wimbledon, the Tour De France or the Aussie Rules Grand Final, the release of a new Bond film is something that gets people fixated and feeling just damned good.
And for those who are a little too young or cool to care about politics or spy thrillers, Beyonce is there to boost the mood with her new single, If I Were a Boy, which is a great song. She actually sounds like Pink here. Great emotion.
Of course there’s only so much euphoria a person can take. The markets might well dip next week, the Bond film and the Beyonce song could be flops, and the McCain-Obama fight might get bogged down dispiritingly in the courts like Gore-Bush.
But for a week at least we can smile. Remember it’s Halloween though, so smile in a grisly kind of way.
– Phil
Quantum of Solace: James Bond 007 is back. And Boy He’s Mad.
30 October 2008
This James Bond tragic goes through a bi-yearly withdrawal until the next 007 comes around.
Often I don’t know why. There have been some real dog Bond films over the years. Some have tried to be too funny. Some have been po-faced (Tim Dalton’s Licence to Kill). Some have been overblown (Brosnan’s Die Another Day). Some have suffered from having a great film wrapped around an ordinary actor (Lazenby’s On Her Majesty’s Secret Service). Some have been ridiculous (Moore’s Moonraker. I mean, having soldiers fighting a laser battle in space dressed like storm troopers. Really.)
But on the other side there have been some superlative cinematic moments, like Lazenby’s tension-filled break-in to a solicitor’s office, Connery’s exquisite disposal of the femme fatale while on the dance floor in Thunderball, or Moore standing in front of a charging car and shooting the driver in For Your Eyes Only. Tim Dalton’s restrained tears at the death of a comrade was just superb.
In all, the balance sheet is to the good. And who doesn’t get at least a small thrill when they see the dots come across the screen at the start of the movie.
They didn’t have the dots last time around. The producers decided to go back to Bond’s beginnings in Casino Royale, and it worked a treat. Despite all the cruel carryings-on before the release by people who didn’t know, Daniel Craig gave a great perfornace as Bond. He was serious, but boy could he deliver a line. Like when the barista asks him if wants his martini shaken or stirred, he answers with a beautiful throwaway, “Do I look like a give a damn”. Some of his predecessors might have laboured the line, killing it stone dead. Not this guy.
Last night Quantom of Solace premiered in London, and some reviews have said that it feels like a sequel, in that it is not quite up to the standard set by Casino Royale. That’s inevitable. Expectations for CS were not high, so it surprised everyone, not just by being a great film, but by being different to anything the audience had seen before.
Revierwers have compared Quantumof Solace to the Bourne films (inevitably) not because it is taut and fast, but because people die. A lot. Bond is angry about the death of his chick, and people are going to pay. They do. In number.
This might be the fatal flaw in the Bond films. When a film in the franchise succeeds, the producers decide to do the Toyota theory, give then the same next time but even more (hence why the Corolla keeps getting larger). So this time there’s more action, more killing, more earnestness and a bigger boot.
I must admot that after seeing Casino Royale, I wondered where they could go from there. Casino Royale part 2 would never do. They needed to surprise people again. Do something that is equally as fresh as the last film.
I haven’t seen the film yet. I am just hoping that they haven’t forsaken character for a few good explosions.
That would be backward step. And a damned shame.
– Phil
The Stockmarket. Is this the Beginning of Something?
29 October 2008
The US markets just had a great night, jumping up by around ten percent. In fact it was the second-biggest jump for the Dow in history.
No wonder our online news service has photos of stockbrokers with million dollar smiles.
The real reason they’re smiling is that the ‘waiters’ have finally started coming back into the market, people from Asia and others who have been holding their cash in their hot little hands, ready to pounce when it looked like the market turnaround was coming.
Now this may not be THE turnaround. It might just be a blip. There could be bad news again tonight for all we know. But as I said, the entrance of new money means the Waiters have had enough of waiting. Over the last few weeks the markets have been driven by low volumes, which means very few investors are buying and selling (mostly selling obviously), so the decisions of the few investors are deciding the fate of the many. The Waiters have been happy to let the few take this responsibility.
We also saw that the Hang Seng in Hong Kong go up a huge 14% yesterday. Ordinarily this would be cause for champagne and orgies, but the truth is that this surge just makes up for an equivalent drop in the market the day before.
We live in extremely volatile times folks. A year ago a single percentage point drop would be thought calamatous. Now a drop of ten times that figure happens every week somewhere.
Beware though. A few smiles, some extra investors and a good night does not a recovery make.
Somehow I don’t think it’s time to unfasten those seat belts quite yet.
– Phil
Seven Days To Go: It’s Still Barack Obama’s To Lose
28 October 2008
This is the serious time folks.
If John Mccain’s going to have any chance of winning the US presidency for the Republicans, he has to score some pretty big hits. Like today. Like now.
But every time I open the papers all I see is evidence of further slides for the McCain camp.
Take, for example, Clothingate. Sarah Palin came under scrutiny last week after it was revealed that the party has paid some ridiculous sum for her official “this little thing?’ clothes. Some suggested that the party’s funds would be better spent than to be poured into the hands of designers.
She relents, which you might think stemmed the damage, but then this morning there’s the photo showing Sarah Palin wearing jeans at a public rally. Now there’s an interesting, and dangerous, clothing choice. I say dangerous because everytime someone looks at Palin’s jeans, they will be given a mental pointer to the whole controversy which sparked the issue. She probably would’ve been far better to wear non-designer versions of what she wore before. But again, with Joe The Plumber being all the rage in Republican circles right, the ‘feral’ look might just be reinforcing John McCain’s ‘I’m one of you’ pitch.
Meanwhile Barack Obama is not putting a toe wrong. The papers continue to be on his side. Photos of Obama never contain embarrassing moments (like when John McCain was seen going off from one of the debates with his tongue sticking out). Instead the Democrat is usually seen in crowds of adoring fans. The message is positive.
When you’ve behind, like John McCain, behindness begets behindness.
Which makes things even harder for the Republican’s chances.
– Phil
Dollar Does a Swan Dive. What? Me Worry?
27 October 2008
This morning we were talking to one of our finance correspondents who went through the latest market woes for us (nice segment that lately. Would you like an anti-depressant with your news sir?)
One thing that struck me was that she said that the Australian dollar has dropped hugely over the weekend, shaving about ten US cents off its value.
The thing that struck me was the fact that she added the word “unfortunately” to the end of her report.
I made me think. Why is the falling Australian dollar a bad thing? Certainly there are nationalistic reasons for us wanting to have a dollar that is every bit as strong as the US dollar. (Hey Ho. Our dollar is bigger than YOUR dollar). There are also greedy reasons for wanting our dollar to be high. LCDs, cars, mixmasters, fridges and french toiletsoap, in fact anything we import, is less expensive when the Australian dollar is high.
But when the Aussie dollar is comparatively weak, the reverse happens, and our exports become much cheaper. Also people coming to Australia (ie: tourists) find Australia a much cheaper place to come for their holidays.
In other words, a falling Australian buck has a lot going for it.
There’s another bonus: if imports become much more expensive, then it is an encouragement for Australians to spend in their own land, rather than to send money elsewhere. Keeping money here helps our pretty poor Current Account, which has been running in monthly deficits for more than a generation.
Meanwhile poor old japan is seeing its yen getting ridiculously strong. It’s strengthening becuase people are investing in the yen rather than in the wobbly japanese sharemarket. As the yen goes up in value, the cost of Japan cars goes up when they are exported. That, my friends, is the last thing that Toyota et al need right now. People are not buying cars because (1) loans are getting scarcer (2) petrol is volatile and (3) they’re scared about getting into new investments. Car makers are having a terrible time of it. A strong yen is not what they want right now.
In all, having a currency which is weaker is not not all bad, and can be pretty good actually, depending on if you’re a glass half empty kind of person.
– Phil
